Research

This paper constructs the first Beveridge Curves for Mexico and its regions using a newly compiled dataset on formal sector job vacancies. Incorporating this novel vacancy dataset helps us define structural macroeconomic shocks and explore business cycle movements both at the national and sectoral level. Focusing on the post-COVID-19 period, we document a sharp increase in labor market slack at the onset of the pandemic, followed by a gradual tightening beginning in 2021, with a more rapid recovery in northern regions. By 2023, vacancy rates declined without a corresponding rise in unemployment, suggesting a rebalancing of labor demand. We further introduce a new measure of labor market slack based on the vacancies-to-unemployment (V/U) ratio for Mexico, which is used to explore national and regional Phillips Curves. Finally, we estimate a Structural Bayesian VAR model. We show that the dynamics of the Beveridge Curve are primarily shaped by labor-market shocks rather than goods-market shocks. Specifically, unemployment dynamics are mainly driven by labor supply and matching efficiency shocks, while wage-bargaining shocks account for most of the variation in vacancies at the national level, with heterogeneity across regions.

This paper analyzes skill mismatches in the Mexican labor market using a Skill Mismatch Index (SMI) to quantify imbalances between labor supply and demand. Results reveal a shortage of workers with primary education and an oversupply of highly educated workers, particularly in government, entertainment, and retail trade. Regional disparities persist, with the south experiencing the highest mismatch. Limited worker mobility exacerbates these imbalances, which tend to intensify as the economy grows. Addressing mismatches requires targeted training, labor mobility incentives, and education reforms to improve workforce alignment and enhance labor market efficiency.

How are expropriations related to governments' debt defaults? The literature has shown that expropriation episodes and debt defaults have rarely coincided, suggesting that each event resulted from a different set of factors. The aim of this article is twofold. First, I analyze default-expropriation relationships in the years previous to the debt crisis of 1982. I show that while default and expropriation episodes did not always coincide, countries that expropriated at least once during the period were also those that defaulted more often. I observe that countries that expropriated had worse macroeconomic indicators than countries that did not. Second, I focus on the case of Mexico, when its announcement of a debt moratorium in August 1982 was followed, less than one month later, by the nationalization of its banking system. Both events were outcomes of an acute economic crisis. The nationalization announcement aggravated the crisis, because an agreement with the IMF seemed increasingly uncertain. I provide evidence from the largely overlooked bond market (on which the government never defaulted) that shows that investors reacted negatively to the bank nationalization. Finally, I present original, published, and unpublished primary sources to demonstrate that commercial banks, as well as international organizations, expressed misgivings about the banks' nationalization. This fact may have hindered the country's economic recovery through the deterioration of public confidence and a decline in foreign investment.

We use the largest modern US deportation program to investigate the effect of deportation shocks on establishments in the communities of origin of migrants. We link these deportations to Mexican municipalities by using transnational data on the undocumented migrant network and then merge them with rich establishment panel data, which includes formal and informal firms. Mexican regions experiencing larger deportation shocks observe an increase in their establishments’ size, revenue, and exports. We provide suggestive evidence that these changes are driven by increases in consumer demand, the transference of human and financial capital, and reductions in labor costs.

I investigate the impact of the arrival of individuals born in developed countries (North-to-South migration) on natives' wages. Using Mexican Population Census data, I first characterize migration to Mexico and show that many foreign-born individuals from developed countries work, contrary to stereotypes. Then, I use an instrumental-variables approach relying on enclaves and find that increasing the number of foreign-born individuals from developed countries decreases natives' wages. I provide evidence suggesting that this is driven by the creation of low-paying jobs in industries relying on local consumption, and the substitution of natives for some white-collar jobs.